Aug. 14, 2018 | 12:02 AM
Return of the Syrian refugees? Not so fast
The Helsinki summit that took place, in private, between
Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on July 16 was received with a wave
of condemnations by the U.S. media and by both houses of Congress on a
bipartisan basis. Interestingly, while Trump had to list the subjects
discussed, no news came out about any decisions made during the meeting. None
of Trump’s senior associates seems to know anything substantial about possible
decisions, which gave a wide impression that no decisions were indeed made.
But two days after the summit, the Russians declared that
an accord was reached to return the Syrian refugees to Syria, including some
who are already in Europe. This was followed by a Russian announcement that a
proposed road map for this return was presented by the Russian Defense Ministry
to its American counterpart. On Aug. 2, the Russians asked the U.S. to “back
its efforts” in this domain. No reaction from the United States has been
registered until now, which, of course, caused skepticism about the existence
of such an accord. Besides, why ask the Americans to back Russia’s efforts to return
the refugees if there was an accord between the two parties to do so?
There are many more important reasons for this skepticism.
To begin with, in spite of the recent successes of the
Syrian army and its pro-Iranian allies, with the help of Russia, Daesh (ISIS)
is still entrenched in several pockets in the south, the east and the northeast
of country from where it conducts brutal attacks. On July 25, it attacked the
town and suburbs of Swaida, in the south of Syria, killing over 200 people and
kidnapping dozens, mostly women and children.
Furthermore, most of the land east of the Euphrates is
still in the hands of the Kurds. The various groups that constitute the armed
opposition still hold land in the south, and around Homs and Aleppo, as well as
practically all the Idlib province in the northwest of the country. The
government forces are itching for a battle to retake Idlib and, if this
happens, it will result in an additional 2 million refugees, according to the
United Nations. Finally, the Free Syrian Army still dominates a large swath of
land on the border of Turkey, with the help of the Turkish army.
Consultations with the groups on the ground, regarding the
return of the refugees, did not apparently take place prior to the Russian
announcement.
Instead, the Russian foreign minister and the chief of
staff of the Russian army have, after the announcement, begun consultations
with the French, the Germans and the Israelis on the subject.
They told the Europeans that the important conditions for
the return of the refugees, including those in Europe of course, were lifting
the sanctions on Syria and the rehabilitation of the Syrian economy. In other
words, as recently reported by the Economist, one precondition for the return
of refugees is that the Americans and Europeans pay for the reconstruction of
Syria, “which could cost as much as $250 billion, a sum Russia and the Assad
regime cannot afford.” The fulfillment of this condition is obviously neither
short-term or realistic.
Late last month, a high-level Russian delegation, composed
of a special representative of Putin and a senior member of the Russian Defense
Ministry, arrived in Lebanon to discuss the return of Syrian refugees. All
sides of the Lebanese political spectrum were united in their excitement about
the visit. A Russian Lebanese committee was formed, headed respectively by the
Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin and the Lebanese Director of
General Security Gen. Abbas Ibrahim to follow up on the initiative.
According to various local news agencies the conditions
imposed on Lebanon for the implementation of the initiative were, first and
foremost, “the preparation of a complete and comprehensive file containing
clear and accurate data on the real number of refugees, [word taken out] an
accurate determination of the number of refugees for security reasons and the
number of refugees for economic and other reasons, and to determine the place
from which came each refugee.”
In addition, Lebanon must give accurate numbers of
registered refugees who cross the borders back and forth.
To all these conditions imposed by the Russians, subsequent
to the original announcement, and the unstable situation on the ground, should
be added Decree No. 10 that was recently issued by the Syrian regime. The
decree allows the regime to confiscate the property of refugees, unless they
can prove ownership within a short period of time, which is impossible for most
of them, either because they cannot safely return (some who did have been
arrested and tortured) or because they have lost the deeds.
“Many Sunni homes have already been given to regime
loyalists,” according to the Economist. In this context, Assad has said that
Syria has won “a healthier and more homogeneous society,” according to the same
source.
The question remains: Why did the Russians make this hasty
announcement in the first place?
Some observers saw it as an attempt by Putin to rescue his
friend Trump from the fierce attack he received from the American media and
polity immediately after the summit (and which continues to this day). Another
reason cited is the desire of Putin to show that Assad has won the contest and
that Syria is near stable and ready for reconstruction. But the most important
reason, perhaps, is to solicit the support of Europe and the United States for
Russia’s role in Syria and its presumed importance to them.
The choice of the
refugee issue is telling. France, Germany and Israel, which were visited by the
high-level Russian delegation, are countries especially concerned with ending
the refugee crisis before it reaches their shores. Indeed, Hezbollah in Lebanon
had already declared, for apparently similar reasons, and to the acclaim of
various factions in the country, that they were working on the return of
refugees, and that they had opened centers in the Bekaa and the south to
receive applications. Hopes were raised when Hezbollah announced late in July
that 1,200 refugees were returned in one month (at this rate, it would take
about 70 years to return the more than 1 million refugees in Lebanon).
Many of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon who can safely
return are actually returning. The data on the site of UNHCR confirm this. But
this is only a trickle. The mass return has not yet begun and, given the conditions
already explained, will probably not begin anytime soon.
Riad Tabbarah is former ambassador of Lebanon to the United
States.
A version of this article appeared in the print edition of
The Daily Star on August 14, 2018, on page 7.
