Commentary
Jan. 12, 2021
The Lebanese conundrum
Riad Tabbarah| The Daily Star
Lebanon is probably the only country
in the world that is teetering on the brink of total collapse while, at the
same time, is desperately resisting international efforts to save it. The scene
is truly Kafkaesque: an international community making frantic and repeated
efforts to stop a Lebanese meltdown, while the Lebanese governing cabal is even
more frantically trying to thwart these efforts.
Yet, there are rational reasons for
this irrational situation.
On the international side, the
countries directly involved in Lebanon’s rescue operation -- France, on behalf
of the European Union, and the United States -- have special interests of their
own for doing so. France created Lebanon a hundred years ago as its main
foothold in the Middle East, and Lebanon is still the only country in the
region that is, at least partly, in France’s sphere of influence. More
importantly perhaps, Lebanon is host to a large refugee community, mostly
Syrian and Muslim, so France and Europe are particularly concerned that a
Lebanese meltdown will trigger a mass movement of these refugees toward Europe.
The United States, on the other hand, fears that the failure of Lebanon would
present an opportunity for Daesh [ISIS] and other Islamic groups, already
present in force in western Syria and the northern border of Lebanon, to
rejuvenate. Moreover, a failed Lebanon might draw Israel into a war with
Lebanese Hezbollah, while the United States is embarked in a process aiming to
draw the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon that will permit Western
companies to drill for gas and oil in this sea area.
On the Lebanese side, we find a
government mired in corruption and incompetence. In a recent global Gallup poll
(2019) which asked if people thought corruption was widespread throughout their
respective governments, 94 percent of Lebanese answered in the affirmative, the
highest percentage in the world. Furthermore, this percentage has been high
(not less than 83 percent) at least since 2006 when the polling started. In
another recent international Gallup poll (2019) the question was asked whether
people thought their government does a good job ensuring the safety of their
food, water and power lines, Lebanon ranked third from the bottom beating only
Yemen and Afghanistan for the lowest ranking. Things, of course, got worse in
2020, especially after the Beirut Port explosion which is said to be the
strongest nonnuclear explosion in modern history, and which left thousands dead
and injured and physical damage estimated in the billions of dollars.
The French initiative that was
presented by President Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Lebanon last August
included a priority condition for financial assistance: the formation of a
government of independent technocrats. This was the most alarming part of the
initiative to Lebanese political groups. The system they were working to establish
involved assigning different ministries to specific groups, long term, thus
allowing the creation of stable corrupt infrastructures inside ministries. The
past political confrontations that accompanied the formation of governments,
therefore, were mostly on what groups would get the most lucrative ministries.
A government of independents, however, holds the risk, of not only cutting off
the inflow of illicit income to politicians, but also exposing their past
illicit activities. In other words, giving in to western pressure in this
instance would not only mean less enrichment, it may also result in ruined
political careers, and maybe jail. The Lebanese elite’s resistance to change
has, therefore, stiffened.
The present French initiative is, of
course, the last in a series of similar international efforts led by the French
to assist the Lebanese economy. All were conditional on the undertaking of
reforms that would minimize corruption. All failed. The Lebanese resistance was
insurmountable.
But in the present face-off, the
international community has stronger weapons than it had in the past to face
the stiffening Lebanese resistance. The French-European coalition is now backed
by the heavy artillery of American sanctions designed to fight terrorism
(Patriot Act of 2001 and later measures), prosecute human rights offenders and
corrupt individuals around the world (Magnistky Act), punish individuals and
entities conducting business with the Assad regime in Syria (Caesar Act), and
in effect pursue any person, institution or country the U.S. deems as deserving
to be sanctioned. Sanctions under the general umbrella of terrorism (assisting
Hezbollah) that were imposed last September on two senior Lebanese politicians
were apparently effective in inducing Lebanon to begin a long -- awaited
negotiation with Israel on the maritime border between the two countries.
Further sanctions imposed, two months later, on another leading politician,
this time under the Magnitsky Act, did not seem to facilitate the formation of
the government of independents, but further sanctions might be in the
pipelines.
How can this status quo be broken?
Many in Lebanon believe that Iran is
holding off the formation of a government, the first step in the French
initiative, pending the formal accession of Joe Biden to the presidency of the
United States on the 20th of this month. Iran, the argument goes, wants to use
Lebanon as one of its bargaining chips in the coming negotiations on the Iran
nuclear deal that Biden has indicated will be pursued by his administration.
But since any negotiations that may take place on this subject will not
probably be initiated anytime soon after the beginning of the Biden presidency,
and will take a long time to reach the serious bargaining stage and the exchange
of chips between the two sides, this scenario implies that Lebanon will be
without a government for a long time, too long for Lebanon not to fall into the
chaos that none of the parties concerned wants.
The truth of the matter is that the
Lebanese conundrum is difficult to solve given the political cabal that has
ruled Lebanon for the past couple of decades. Changing the cabal is not easy
either. Early Parliamentary election, as demanded by some of the opposition, is
unlikely to be approved by the present Parliament and, in any case, will
probably result, at best, in a small change in the Parliament’s composition
that is insufficient to make a major difference.
So, we’re left with what Macron knew
all along: we must work with what we have, the old corrupt cabal of
politicians, but this time with the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.
The threat of sanctions and the lure of asylum might prod them to forego some
illicit income in order to elicit some foreign assistance.
Who knows? It might work.
Riad Tabbarah is a former Ambassador
to the United States.
https://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2021/Jan-12/516219-the-lebanese-conundrum.ashx
