Tuesday, July 5, 2016

The Turmoil in Europe



Jul. 05, 2016

Globalization is behind the turmoil in Europe and the United States

“It is the nature of men to create monsters ... and it is the nature of monsters to destroy their makers,” said Harlan Wade, the mad scientist, in the video game First Encounter Assault Recon (F.E.A.R.). The West created and promoted globalization and now globalization has turned on the West, shaking Europe to its roots and touching the heart and soul of American democracy. I don’t just mean Brexit and Donald Trump. I mean the wider crisis, reflected in the rise of nativism, racism and, I dare say, fascism, in Europe and America, which was boosted recently by terrorism and the flood of refugees into Europe.

Let me explain.

In his 2002 book, “Globalization and its Discontents,” Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz explained “the devastating effect that globalization can have on developing countries” by unleashing on them global organizations, particularly the IMF with its harsh and outmoded approach to restructuring. That book was, in a sense, a sequel to a 1987 book by Giovanni Andrea Cornia, Richard Jolly and Frances Stewart entitled “Adjustment with a Human Face: Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth.” These and similar writings, which pleaded for mercy on behalf of the developing countries, tell only one side of the story of globalization, the side that created the discontent in Third World countries. That was the story of the monster before it turned on its makers.

These were the days of economic globalization, where the strong wrote the rules and the weak followed them. Human globalization, that is, the integration of peoples of different cultures, which was to create, eventually, the upheaval we are witnessing today, was late in coming. Colonialists did not need to ask the natives for their opinion on how to be governed nor needed to mix with them socially, or accept them as immigrants. They were generally treated with disdain, or, at best, with benign neglect. Winston Churchill used to boast that he created Jordan “with the stroke of a pen, on a Sunday afternoon in Cairo.” Although he drew straight lines in the sand, one exception was a triangle that jotted into Jordan at its southern border, which survived to this day. It is referred to as Winston’s Hiccup, or Churchill’s Sneeze, given Churchill’s reputation for guzzling liquor (New York Times, March 26, 2012). The strong (read the West) could take decisions affecting the weak without worrying about their consequences. The Sykes-Picot agreement divided the Arab East among France and Britain after these two countries had denied to the Arab leadership the mere existence of such an agreement. A minor Arab revolt was quelled and that was that. The creation of Israel caused a couple of million refugees. They were settled in the neighboring countries and no one in Europe or the United States felt, for some time, the earthquake that ensued in the region. Wars, including World War II, Vietnam and others ended neatly by signing military surrenders, or by peace treatise or armistice agreements. These situations formed the conventional wisdom in the West until very recently. In October 2011, Hillary Clinton, during a television interview, was told that Moammar Gadhafi was killed. She broke out laughing loudly and said cheerfully: “We came, we saw, he died,” adapting the words of Julius Caesar, “veni vidi vici,” (I came, I saw, I conquered) that he wrote after a swift victory in B.C. 47.

But human globalization had to come eventually, given the rapidly shrinking world and the revolution in transportation and communication. Migration from the South to the North began in earnest after World War II. The first reaction of people in the receiving rich countries was anti-immigration, nativism and a growing feeling of nationalism, but political parties representing these groups remained, until recently, mostly on the fringe of national politics. Jean Marie Le Pen, who ran the French anti-immigration party, the “National Front,” until 2011, never received more than 17 percent of the vote in national elections. The “Alternative for Germany” party (AfD), founded just prior to the elections of 2013 in Germany, didn’t make the 5 percent minimum vote in that election to qualify for representation in the Bundestag, The German parliament. The British “Independence Party” (UKIP) polled 3.2 percent in the 2010 national elections.

All this began to change, however, soon after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, with the festering war in Syria starting in 2011 and after the NATO attack on Libya the same year. Suddenly, wars didn’t end neatly with an official surrender of one side. Hillary Clinton’s diatribe “we came, we saw, he died,” turned out to be not only tasteless, but utterly wrong.

On the other hand, human globalization melted borders. Old borders that shielded the Western countries from the consequences of their actions elsewhere, proved fragile under the new rules of human globalization. The creation of refugees in the East resulted in a flood of refugees to the West. The rise of terrorism in the East found major echoes in Europe and the United Sates. Topping all that was the revival of the request of Turkey, a Muslim country with a population of 75 million, to join the European Union.

As a result, the fringe anti-immigration parties in Europe turned Islamophobic, nativist and increasingly racist. They grew rapidly in popularity, thus beginning to threaten the traditional majorities. The French “National Front” party is now polling 28 percent, and its popularity is still rising. Its leader, Marine Le Pen, will probably have a place in the second round of the French presidential elections. In Germany, the “Alternative for Germany” party would take about 12 percent of the vote if federal elections were held today, according to a recent poll. UKIP would receive 25 percent of the votes if a national election in England is held now, compared with the 3.2 percent it received in 2010. It led the movement to leave the European Union (Brexit) and succeeded. And in the United States, traditional politicians are scrambling for ways to stop the presumptive Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump, an extreme Islamophobic nativist, who, many believe, would probably shake the foundations of Western democracy and values if elected president.
So globalization that was created and promoted by the West is now creating havoc in Europe and the United States. The monster finally turned on its maker.

What Western leadership has to realize now is that human globalization will intensify in the future irrespective of present popular resistance, and that there is no turning back; that the new wars may have no neat ending as in the past; and that injustices you do to others will eventually come back to haunt you.

Accepting these three new rules is a prerequisite for easing the inevitable transition to the new world order.

Riad Tabbarah is a former ambassador of Lebanon to the United States.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on July 05, 2016, on page 7.


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2016/Jul-05/360557-globalization-is-behind-the-turmoil-in-europe-and-the-united-states.ashx

Just found this cartoon in the New York Times:




Note the similarities between the points made by President Obama and those made in this article. Sub-titles in bold are mine:
July 09, 2016  Warsaw, Poland
Remarks by President Obama at Press Conference After NATO Summit

In answer to a question on Brexit:
PRESIDENT OBAMA:
Globalization is here to stay

 …What is accurate to say is that I believe the process of globalization is here to stay… it's happening.  It's here…. 

Economic Globalization

And if we don't take steps to make sure everybody can participate in that global integration -- making sure that wages are high enough, making sure that we rebuild the social compact so that pensions and health care are taken care of, making sure that communities are not completely abandoned when a factory leaves and there’s an economic plan for transition -- if we do not do that effectively, then there’s going to be a backlash.

Human Globalization: Normal integration

With respect to immigration, it is America’s experience that immigration has been, by far, a net plus for our economic growth, our culture, our way of life.  Now, in America, that's by necessity, because unless you're a Native American, you came from -- everybody came from someplace else.  Europe may not have as many of those traditions. 

But keep in mind, one of the huge macroeconomic advantages that America has is we're still a relatively young country, our birth rate is not dropping off like Europe’s is, or Russia’s is, or China’s, or Japan’s.  And that's as a consequence of immigration.  And it's economics 101, if you’ve got a younger population, your growth rate is going to be higher…. 

The New Problem of Human Globalization is its intensity

Now, huge influxes of the sort that we've seen in Europe -- that's always going to be a shock to the system.  And I think it is entirely appropriate for Europe, even as generous as it has been -- and I think that Chancellor Merkel deserves enormous credit, and other European leaders who have taken in these migrant populations deserve enormous credit, because that's hard. It's a strain on the budget.  It's a strain on politics.  It's a strain on culture.  It's legitimate for them to say, look, we got to slow this thing down.  We got to manage it properly. 


So it's one more reason why, given the fact of global integration, we have to think globally, more broadly.  Because our security interests, our economies are all going to depend on the institutional arrangements that we have across boundaries.  

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